GENERATION OF TRIP FORECASTING MODEL FOR SARDAR PATEL RING ROAD: A CASE STUDY OF AHMEDABAD CITY

Pravek Dwivedi, Rajesh Gujar, Dharmik Modha, Monil Bhatt

Abstract: With about 5.6 Million people, Ahmedabad is the biggest town of Gujarat state in India. Ahmedabad is growing at an exponential rate. As a result, the demand for infrastructure and transportation needs is also increasing. To design any of the transportation facility, scope for future demand is to be incorporated. Traffic is a dynamic phenomenon. Modelling of traffic is quite difficult and arduous task. This study involves the study of traffic in various areas of Ahmedabad within Sardar Patel Ring Road which covers major part of Ahmedabad city with an area of 484 km2 . This Research project involves modelling of traffic which yields the number of trips generated in future. Out of around 250 houses visited, 130 agreed to provide relevant data for the project and hence 130 Data samples were collected from households by door to door survey. Mathematical modelling of data collected by door to door survey of households within the study area was done. Regression and Co-relation analysis were carried out using 4 parameters. Family size and composition and number of vehicles of different types i.e. two wheelers and four wheelers were taken as parameters for trip generation.It was observed that the most impactful factor for trip generation is the number of two wheelers with correlation coefficient of (+0.97) whereas the least impactful factor was the number of females in a household with correlation coefficient of (-0.05). The parameters chosen for study are relevant in any area of Ahmedabad and hence this model can be used anywhere to estimate the number of trips.

Keywords: Sardar Patel Ring Road; Door to Door Survey; Regression and Co-relation analysis; Trip Forecasting Model

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15623/ijret.2018.0707004