MODELING FOR PREDICTION OF CRASH RATE FOR NAIDUPETA ROAD STRETCH (NH71)

K Giridhar M.S, Y Himaja Reddy, T.Suresh Babu

Abstract: The main objective of the present study was to predict the expected number of crashes in the selected stretch by developing a model. It only the past decade the developing countries like India begun to experience large increase in the number of road accidents taking place and have found it necessary to institute road safety programs. It is strongly felt that most of the accidents, being a multi factor event, are not merely due to drivers fault on account of drivers negligence or ignorance of traffic rules and regulations, but also due to many other related factors such as abrupt changes in road conditions, flow characteristics, road users behavior, climatic conditions, visibility and absence of traffic guidance, control and management devices. In the present study, the accident data of the proposed stretch from the year 2012-2016 has been collected from concerned police station, by using this data actual crash rate for the respect stretch is found. After this, the main data required is the geometrics of the road way which will be useful for the evaluation of the black spot locations. Crash rate and crash rate per year is find for the each location. After this for the identified black spots the geometrical details were identified and modeling is done to predict the crash rate using linear regression method in MINI TAB software

Keywords: Road accidents, Observed crash rate, Predicted crash rate, Linear Regression, Road Stretch, Horizontal alignment and Geometrical details

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15623/ijret.2017.0612001