ESTIMATION OF URBAN WATER DEMAND USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING FOR MADURAI CITY

Gokila Vani, Ravisankar

Abstract: Water is important for all kind activities in the present world. Estimation of urban water demand is necessary step in rapidly urbanizing world to upgrade and enhance the water infrastructure assets, sustainable water management planning, design and satisfy the future needs. For water demand estimation, Conventional mathematical models and advanced computational models are applied for estimating short and long term water demands. Though the factors considering for water demand re dynamic in nature, accurate prediction needs more iterative models. System Dynamics modeling has been chosen because it considers the socio-economic factors which are dynamic in nature. It is an iterative technique which helps to arrive at the accurate demand. The main objectives of this study are thoroughly reviewing the water demand estimation model and formulate the System dynamics model for Madurai city which considers the socio-economic factors which are not being stable. System dynamics modeling procedures are Problem identification, Model formulation, Simulation and Validation. System Dynamics simulation results the estimation of water demand by 2040 for the selected study area. At present the demand for Madurai city is 209 MLD, the city corporation supply only 115 MLD. Based on the calculation for water demand compared with water supply, at present the city has a shortage of 94 MLD of water. Because of importance in Industries, tourism and population growth the water demand for Madurai will increase gradually on the coming years. The study results indicate that total demand of Madurai city increases in each decade and supply are being insufficient.

Keywords: Water Demand, System Dynamics, Madurai City, Water Management Etc…

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15623/ijret.2017.0602018