ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELLING FOR AN URBAN ROAD OF BANGALORE

Prithvi Bhat, Lokesh Hebbani, Anantha Rama V, Priyanka Kolhar

Abstract: Infrastructure development and/or enhancement of urban areas entail the assessment of safety parameters for the efficient and safe movement of the road users from a transportation engineer’s perspective. It has become an essential part of every transportation plan to focus on the road user safety aspects not only in the present traffic condition, but also with the changing scenario of the traffic flow. The major purpose of this study was to develop an accident prediction model that would depict the effect of some of the major factors on accident causation on urban roads. The factors included road characteristics and traffic volume details collected for a selected stretch in Bangalore that is one of the major black spot locations of the city. The selected best fit model had an excellent coefficient of determination (R2 adj = 0.967), encompassing the crucial variables such as carriageway width, shoulder type, number of minor crossings, land use, road condition, average speed of traffic stream and composition of trucks. It is envisioned that this study will help recommend the significant safety measures that need to be adopted by the transportation planners in designing a safer road user environment

Keywords: Accident prediction model, non linear analyses, coefficient of determination

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15623/ijret.2013.0213024